Bitcoin Likely to Drop After the Halving, JPMorgan Says (2024)

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Bitcoin Likely to Drop After the Halving, JPMorgan Says? ›

JPMorgan said it expects bitcoin to fall after the reward halving. The bank's analysis shows that the cryptocurrency remains overbought. Miners will be most affected by the event, the report said.

The past three halvings – in 2020, 2016 and 2012 – have resulted in an average price increase of 16% over the 60 days that followed, according to data from the asset research firm 10x Research. The 2016 halving resulted in a decrease of 6% over the following 60 days, although it then rallied strongly throughout 2017.

For instance, after the first halving, the reward for bitcoin mining dropped to 25 BTC per block. The last halving should occur in 2140. At that point, there will be 21 million BTC in circulation and no more coins will be created. From there, miners will just be paid with transaction fees.

Is bitcoin halving bullish? Bitcoin halving is considered bullish because each event reduces the rate at which future bitcoins are created. This then boosts the scarcity and value of existing bitcoins. But a positive effect isn't guaranteed.

The Bitcoin network on Friday evening completed its fourth “halving,” reducing the rewards earned by miners to 3.125 bitcoins from 6.25. The price of bitcoin has been volatile ahead of the event, and fell about 4% this week to trade around $64,100, according to Coin Metrics.

Analyzing the effect of halvings

On average, Bitcoin has increased roughly 125% in halving years. However, the year after a halving tends to produce the best gains. In the year after a halving, Bitcoin returned a whopping 415% on average. That means an investment of $1,000 would be worth more than $5,000.

A Bitcoin halving event occurs when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. Halvings reduce the rate at which new coins are created and thus lower the available amount of new supply. Bitcoin last halved on April 19, 2024, resulting in a block reward of 3.125 BTC.

These peaks are often reached within a year after a halving, riding the wave of reduced supply and heightened demand, before the natural market correction takes hold due to profit-taking and the cyclical nature of investor sentiment.

Bitcoin, it found, is likely to hit an average peak price of $87,875 in 2024, with some experts predicting it will climb as high as $200,000.

“Miners need their revenues to be more than their costs, like any business,” Malekan says. “What is likely to happen after the halving is that some miners will no longer be profitable, and they will stop mining.”

Who owns the most bitcoin? ›

The anonymous creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, reportedly possesses approximately 1 million Bitcoin, which are stored in multiple wallets. At the current price, the amount would be worth around $60 billion. Bitcoin has a maximum cap of 21 million, which makes Nakamoto one of the top Bitcoin owners.

When its supply is reduced through halving, and if the demand stays constant or increases, we often see a ripple effect on the prices of other cryptocurrencies.

By the end of 2030, the predicted Ethereum price could soar to a peak of $26,575.21. The current price of 1 Ethereum is $ 3,139.76127451.

Typically, Bitcoin prices continue to surge for a good few months following a halving month, rising, on average, for seven months.

What Happens When Bitcoin Halves? When Bitcoin undergoes a halving, the number of new Bitcoins that are made gets cut in half. Said differently, there's a 50% reduction in the reward miners receive for validating transactions and adding them to the blockchain.

A recent report predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in 2024. Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach a new record of $88,000 (€82,000) throughout the year, before it settles around $77,000 at the end of 2024, according to a new report. The cryptocurrency's current price sits at around $43,000.

When its supply is reduced through halving, and if the demand stays constant or increases, we often see a ripple effect on the prices of other cryptocurrencies.